An overwhelming majority of the Mexican people — 64 percent — support the energy reforms the current Morena government has proposed. These reforms would have a major impact on how México produces and consumes energy and an equally significant impact on Mexico’s relations with other countries, in particular its biggest trading partner, the United States. Nick Corbishley, writing in Naked Capitalism earlier this month, has more.

The reforms seek to roll back the privatization and market liberalization policies of previous administrations. They will make the future production of lithium, a core component of batteries, the exclusive domain of the government. They will also require that the national grid obtains at least 54 percent of its energy from public sources and then, as needed, from private ones.

For obvious reasons, the reforms are not quite so popular among the domestic and international energy companies, banks, and investment funds that have poured money into Mexico’s energy market over the past couple of decades.

As the big vote beckons, pressure is growing on President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government to reverse course. The U.S. Department of Energy has warned that the reforms will fuel a sharp rise in energy prices…and the International Monetary Fund had called on López Obrador to stall some of the reforms, in particular the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery, one of AMLO’s flagship infrastructure projects…

Yet Mexico’s [economic success] stands out. The government’s budget deficit last year was -4.8 percent, compared to 13.4 percent for Brazil...This year it should be around -0.6 percent.  Even the IMF itself admits that Mexico’s fiscal position is stronger than many of its emerging market peers, largely due to AMLO’s fiscal policy...

In other words, Mexico’s government has more than enough fiscal leeway to complete the Dos Bocas oil refinery. It also has a legitimate motive: energy independence. Mexico has not built a new oil refinery in the past 40 years. After decades of under-investment many of those that are still standing are in a dilapidated state. By 2017, a year before AMLO became president, they were operating at 51 percent of capacity, leaving Mexico little choice but to ship its oil to the US and buy it back as gasoline, turning it into the world’s second-largest gasoline importer. Together with Brazil, Mexico accounts for seven out of 10 barrels of U.S. gasoline exports.

AMLO wants to change that.