Given these results, what do you see as the future of the three conservative parties?
The three parties will try to block whatever Morena wants to do. But to simply oppose is not a winning strategy. Even anti-Morena pundits complain that the conservatives do not have an alternative program. Key PRI and PAN figures also face more corruption scandals that will keep them in the public eye. This August, a national referendum will decide whether previous presidents should be prosecuted for corruption. AMLO, the anti-corruption crusader, wants a mandate for prosecution from the people.
Any unexpected results on June 6?
The biggest surprise — and upset — came in México City, a long-time bastion of the left. Progressives hadn’t lost an election there since 1997. The current mayor, Claudia Scheinbaum, was not up for re-election, but Morena lost many important municipal presidencies. The reasons still need sorting out, but the most important that have been pinpointed so far include a complacency that we would automatically win, the poor performance of elected representatives in office, and the effects of the constant media campaign attacking Morena, AMLO, and the “4T,” the Fourth Transformation. Other contributing factors included the imposition from above of unpopular Morena candidates, the near collapse of Morena as an organization beyond its electoral focus, and the voter disenchantment that incumbents almost always face.
What are Morena’s political priorities for the second half of AMLO’s term going to be?
One key goal will be to change the Constitution to codify AMLO’s social programs and put Mexico’s energy resources under national control. Morena also wants programs such as the payment of stipends to seniors made “irreversible” and for universal free health care to be constitutionally enshrined. The courts have recently ruled against many key Morena reforms, and, without a constitutional change, we can’t guarantee the reforms that have already been enacted.
Morena will try to negotiate with some PRI and Citizens’ Movement legislators to get the needed two-thirds majority, but I’m pessimistic. In México, congressional deputies don’t represent their districts. They vote their party line. It’s going to take more than skillful negotiating. It’s going to take a popular mobilization.
That brings us to Morena, the party. What must happen now within the party?
Morena, as an organization, stands in shambles. It has evolved from a social movement to a party/movement to a party. The party did not run the June 6 elections on a grassroots basis. It didn’t mobilize rank-and-file members and that generated considerable discontent in the ranks. With the elections now over, it’s imperative for Morena to get its house in order. But doing so might be complicated given the absence of concrete mechanisms to ensure an open democratic debate and decision making within the party.